I am not ignorant of Android and what it can do. I just have a strong opinion that the Microsoft Operating System model will not translate to mobile phones. That model allows to install software from anywhere. While that is appealing to the tech crowd, it translates poorly into success on other platforms.

People want something elegant and simplistic to use. By allowing apps to be installed from potentially limitless sources, the Android could become easily susceptible to security attacks. It’s also confusing for the average user to manage. It creates a bit of mayhem to update apps/OS.

MS is requiring devices that carry it to all adhere to a common physical UI which will allow MS to have much better control on the user experience. Also, they will only allow apps to be installed from their app store. They are said to not allow Flash. While they will always be behind Apple, I do believe they will overcome Android fairly quickly by leveraging their Office, Zune and XBox brands.

I do not personally believe that an open source solution like Linux or Android can claim more than 15% of a given mature and saturated market. I understand that statement will upset many people. In a lot of ways I hope I am wrong as there are many friends and people I like that have both feet fully in open source solutions and projects.

The iPhone Ui is simple and easy to do most things. When my parents and even grand parents can quickly learn and navigate the iPhone OS and install apps, you begin to understand the appeal of the iPhone and its model.

I have nothing personal against Android but I do not see its model working well in the long run. People are buying it now because phones like Palm and even RIM are not doing well on the browser experience. The Android UI is doing well because it more closely resembles the iPhone. As well on any other carriers but AT&T, the Android doesn’t compete with the iPhone. However, on networks that carry the iPhone, the iPhone is dominating sales.

I spoke directly to Steve Ballmer on Mobile Phone 7 after it debuted and I am not nearly as convinced as apparently yourself on it (caveat being unless Microsoft ends up purchasing RIM/Blackberry)

I do like what Apple is doing with iAd but can see Google trumping it with the AdMob purchase (upon the FTC approval which is more likely due to iAd) as it will become the DoubleClick of mobile.

I do have doubts that Apple will support other mobile platforms. Also, with their acquisition of Siri today, it appears that Apple may be exploring the combination of their own mobile search and advertising system integrated at the OS level. I’ll try to find the specific article that suggests the ad market on iPhone OS devices may be around $8B in 5 years.

Mark